Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s most renowned hedge funds and macroeconomic
researchers, together with the international advocacy organization Global Citizen, and the
leading Pan-African investor and developer across the continent, Harith General Partners, have
partnered to produce brand new research highlighting the economic potential of Sub-Saharan
Africa’s rapidly expanding population. The collaboration brings together decades of expertise in
global economic analysis and advocacy to shed light on the region’s pivotal role in shaping the
future global economy.
With nearly fifty years of experience in mapping the intricate cause-and-effect relationships that
drive global economies and markets, Bridgewater Associates has long been at the forefront of
economic forecasting. Their partnership with Global Citizen, the world’s leading advocacy
organization known for its cultural and advocacy work partnering with entertainers and world
leaders to call on governments and the private sector to take necessary action to end global
extreme poverty, and Harith General Partners, one of the largest investors in African
infrastructure, aims to provide insights that will inspire collective action from the world’s richest
nations, the global private sector, and local governments in sub-Saharan Africa.
Harnessing the Power of Demographic Change
As global population growth slows, Sub-Saharan Africa stands out with a demographic boom that
is rapidly increasing its share of the global workforce.
Since initially launching this partnership in support of the World Bank’s IDA21 replenishment
efforts, Bridgewater has worked to better understand the dynamic of Sub-Saharan Africa’s
population growth, its implications for the region’s role in the global economy, and how decisions
made by policy makers, investors, and the private sector can send us down alternative paths.
Key Research Findings:
The new research- Changing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth Trajectory- identifies five key
takeaways that underline the importance of this demographic shift:
1.Demographic Transformation: Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing a significant
demographic transformation that will have profound effects on regional and global
economies and geopolitics in the coming decades. Over the coming decades the region’s
share of the global working-age population is projected to grow from 10% to 25%. The
outcome of this transformation will be a key driver of economic and geopolitical shifts
worldwide. The region has the potential to become an engine of global economic growth,
but current trajectories suggest a risk of stagnation, which could leave a significant
portion of the world behind, with far-reaching global consequences.
- Diversity within the Region: Sub-Saharan Africa is not a monolithic entity. There is
substantial variation among countries, each with unique development needs requiring
tailored solutions. While challenges such as low productivity, insufficient investment, and
high debt burdens are common, the degree of these issues varies significantly across the
region. Investments and policies must be customized to fit local dynamics, including
politics, history and natural resource distribution. - Infrastructure and Human Capital: To change the region’s growth trajectory, it is
essential to address infrastructure and human capital gaps. Increasing investment in these
areas can create a virtuous cycle that drives further investment and growth. - Role of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs): MDBs are crucial in supporting
infrastructure and human development projects that the private sector may find too risky
to finance. Their involvement is vital for foundational progress. - Private Investment: Private investment must play a more significant role in closing the
f
inancing gap. However, challenges such as high perceived risks and underdeveloped
capital markets currently hinder this potential.
Call to Action: Economic Development Assembly in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, October 9-10.
The research underscores the urgent collaborative action needed among policymakers, private
investors, and MDBs to harness the economic opportunities presented by Sub-Saharan Africa’s
demographic growth. By doing so, the global community can help ensure a prosperous future for
the region and contribute to the global fight against extreme poverty.
As a result of these findings, Bridgewater Associates, Global Citizen and Harith General Partners
are hosting the Economic Development Assembly in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, from October 9-10,
in partnership with the Government of Côte d’Ivoire. The Assembly will serve as a platform to
call on global leaders to increase their contributions to the International Development
Association’s (IDA) replenishment efforts, starting with the IDA21 cycle. The event will also
emphasize the importance of supporting other reputable MDBs that are focused on the
development challenges facing sub-Saharan Africa.
Image Caption: Bridgewater CEO Nir Bar Dea, Global Citizen CEO Hugh Evans and World Bank
President Ajay Banga pictured with Heads of State from across Africa in April 2024
